International Journal of Infectious Diseases
Volume 11, Issue 2 , Pages 98-108 , March 2007

Containing a large bioterrorist smallpox attack: a computer simulation approach

  • Ira M. Longini Jr.

      Affiliations

    • Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, 1100 Fairview Ave. N., LE-400, PO Box 19024, Seattle, WA 98109-1024, USA
    • Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
    • Corresponding Author InformationCorresponding author. Tel.: +1 206 667 2721; fax: +1 206 667 4812.
    • ,
  • M. Elizabeth Halloran

      Affiliations

    • Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, 1100 Fairview Ave. N., LE-400, PO Box 19024, Seattle, WA 98109-1024, USA
    • Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
    • ,
  • Azhar Nizam

      Affiliations

    • Department of Biostatistics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
    • ,
  • Yang Yang

      Affiliations

    • Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
    • ,
  • Shufu Xu

      Affiliations

    • Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, 1100 Fairview Ave. N., LE-400, PO Box 19024, Seattle, WA 98109-1024, USA
    • ,
  • Donald S. Burke

      Affiliations

    • Department of International Health, The Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
    • ,
  • Derek A.T. Cummings

      Affiliations

    • Department of International Health, The Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
    • ,
  • Joshua M. Epstein

      Affiliations

    • Center on Social and Economic Dynamics, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC and The Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, USA

Received 8 December 2005 ,Revised 7 March 2006 ,Accepted 15 March 2006.

References 

  1. Cohen J, Enserink M. Public health. Rough-and-tumble behind Bush's smallpox policy. Science. 2002;298:2312–2316
  2. Henderson DA, Inglesby TV, Bartlett JG, Ascher MS, Eitzen E, Jahrling PB, et al. Smallpox as a biological weapon: medical and public health management. JAMA. 1999;281:2127–2137
  3. Halloran ME, Longini IM, Nizam A, Yang Y. Containing bioterrorist smallpox. Science. 2002;298:1428–1432
  4. Eichner M. Case isolation and contact tracing can prevent the spread of smallpox. Am J Epidemiol. 2003;158:118–128
  5. Kaplan EH, Craft DL, Wein LM. Emergency response to a smallpox attack: the case for mass vaccination. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2002;99:10935–10940
  6. Eubank S, Guclu H, Kumar VS, Marathe MV, Srinivasan A, Toroczkai Z, et al. Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks. Nature. 2004;429:180–184
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  8. United States Census Bureau. Census 2000. Age distribution was retrieved from www.census.gov/census2000/states/us.html, and household sizes were retrieved from http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DatasetMainPageServlet?_lang=en (see Census 2000 Summary File 1). These Web sites were accessed on 29 October 2002.
  9. Enserink M. Infectious diseases. Smallpox vaccination campaign in the doldrums. Science. 2003;300:880–881
  10. Centers for Disease Control. Smallpox vaccination program status by state, 2005. http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/spvaccin.htm. Accessed on January 23, 2005.
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  12. Eichner M. Analysis of historical data suggests long-lasting protective effects of smallpox vaccination. Am J Epidemiol. 2003;158:717–723
  13. Smallpox modeling working group, Secretary's Advisory Council on Public Health Preparedness, United States Department of Health and Human Services. The working group was headed by J. Chin (UC Berkeley), and also consisted of L. Anderson (CDC), L. Borio (DHHS), J. Breman (NIH/FIC), G. Curlin (NIH/NIAID), J. Donlon (DHHS), E. Eitzen (DHHS), D.S. Burke (JHSPH), J.M. Epstein (Brookings Institution), J.W. Glasser (CDC), M.E. Halloran (Emory U), D.A. Henderson (DHHS), I.M. Longini (Emory U), E. McKenzie (NIH/FIC), M. Miller (NIH/FIC), F. Murphy (UC Davis).
  14. Fenner F, Henderson DA, Arita I, Jezek Z, Ladnyi ID. Smallpox and its eradication. Geneva: World Health Organization; 1988;
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  16. Halloran ME, Longini IM, Cowart DM, Nizam A. Community trials of vaccination and the epidemic prevention potential. Vaccine. 2002;20:3254–3262
  17. Watts D, Strogatz S. Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks. Nature. 1998;393:440–442
  18. Watts DJ. Small worlds: The dynamics of networks between order and randomness. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press; 1999;
  19. Halloran ME, Struchiner CJ, Longini IM. Study designs for different efficacy and effectiveness aspects of vaccination. Am J Epidemiol. 1997;146:789–803
  20. Centers for Disease Control. Smallpox response plan and guidelines (version 3.0), 2002. http://www.bt.cdc.gov/agent/smallpox/response-plan/index.asp.
  21. Thomas DB, Arita I, McCormack WM, Khan MM, Islam S, Mack TM. Endemic smallpox in rural East Pakistan. II. Intravillage transmission and infectiousness. Am J Epidemiol. 1971;93:373–383
  22. Mack TM. Smallpox in Europe, 1950–1971. J Infect Dis. 1972;125:161–169

PII: S1201-9712(06)00096-8

doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2006.03.002

International Journal of Infectious Diseases
Volume 11, Issue 2 , Pages 98-108 , March 2007

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