Risk factors of poultry outbreaks and human cases of H5N1 avian influenza virus infection in West Java Province, Indonesia

Map showing the number of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 cases in humans (indicated by the numbers) and the number of HPAI poultry outbreaks (indicated as color gradient) in 25 districts (including nine cities, which are regarded as separate districts) in West Java Province, Indonesia, from 2005 to 2008.

The association of the number of HPAI outbreaks in poultry per million poultry population with poultry density in West Java Province, Indonesia. The markers indicate the observed numbers in 25 districts. One district (Ciamis) had no poultry outbreaks, which was in the figure included as 0.5 outbreaks (square). The lines result from Poisson regression through generalized linear modeling, using poultry density as univariate factor. Gray represents a linear association: y = 10⁶ × exp (−10.599 – 0.281x). Black represents a second order polynomial: y = 10⁶ × exp (−9.990 – 0.581x+0.028x²).