- •The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pneumonia has caused 355 confirmed cases on the Diamond Princess cruise ship as of February 16, 2020.
- •We estimated that the Maximum-Likelihood (ML) value of reproductive number (R0) was 2.28 for COVID-19 outbreak at the early stage on the ship.
- •If R0 value was reduced by 25% and 50%, the estimated total number of cumulative cases would be reduced from 1296 (1145–1452) to 874 (780–978) and 573 (512–644) as of February 26, 2020, respectively.
Model development and statistical analysis
was the vector of probability mass function (PMF) of serial interval distribution. was the real-time incidence at time (
- Zhao S.
- Lin Q.Y.
- Ran J.J.
- Musa S.S.
- Yang G.P.
- Wang W.M.
- et al.
Conflict of interest
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