Coronavirus (COVID-19) Collection
Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran: A reply to Sharifi
The worldwide outbreak of the novel coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2) pneumonia remains a major public health concern. We thank Sharifi et al.’s comments to our recent study (Zhuang et al., 2020). In that paper we adopted the similar method as Imai's (Imai et al., 2020), which was used to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases in the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, Hubei, China. The model provided a rough range estimation about the epidemic size and has been recognized by peers as a valid method in the early stage of an epidemic (Kucharski et al., 2020; Boldog et al., 2020; Ng et al., 2020).Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea, and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020, respectively. We modelled the transmission process in the Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model, and estimated the basic reproduction number R0 as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3–2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9–3.5) in the Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3–2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0–3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020, respectively.The relative transmissibility of asymptomatic COVID-19 infections among close contacts
Nishiura et al. (2020) estimated the asymptomatic ratio of COVID-19 was 41.6% (5 out of 12 confirmed cases) among 565 Japanese individuals evacuated from Wuhan, China. Mao et al. (2020) reported that 2 out of 78 confirmed cases are asymptomatic. One of the two cases showed RT-PCT positivity 15th days after first diagnosis. Mizumoto et al. (2020) estimated that the 17.9% of cases on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship were asymptomatic case during the outbreak in February 2020. However, the transmissibility of asymptomatic case is unclear, and the positive RT-PCT results only imply the potential infectivity.Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran: A modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China at the end of 2019, and soon spread to the rest of China and overseas (Bogoch et al., 2020). At the time of writing, 78 630 cases had been reported in China and 3664 cases had been confirmed in 46 other countries (World Health Organization, 2020). Iran has recently become an epicenter in the Middle East region and has seen the largest cumulative number of deaths outside China (Wikipedia, 2020). As of March 1, 2020, Iran had confirmed 987 COVID-19 cases, including 54 associated deaths (Wikipedia, 2020).
