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International Journal of Infectious Diseases
International Society for Infectious Diseases
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  • Research Article3

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  • Jung, Sung-mok2
  • Nishiura, Hiroshi2
  • Cheng, Hao-Yuan1
  • Endo, Akira1
  • Linton, Natalie M1
  • Thompson, Robin N1

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  • International Journal of Infectious Diseases3

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  • COVID-192
  • effective reproduction number1
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  • Research Article
    Open Access

    Predicting the effective reproduction number of COVID-19: inference using human mobility, temperature, and risk awareness

    International Journal of Infectious Diseases
    Vol. 113p47–54Published online: October 7, 2021
    • Sung-mok Jung
    • Akira Endo
    • Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov
    • Hiroshi Nishiura
    Cited in Scopus: 12
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      The first confirmed case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection was reported in Japan on January 15, 2020; since then, the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has continuously affected the entire country. As the incidence of COVID-19 began to surge, a state of emergency was declared by the national government on April 16, requesting the voluntary reduction of physical contact, which likely helped to suppress the epidemic (Jung et al., 2021). However, resuming socioeconomic activities in late May led to a resurgence of cases.
      Predicting the effective reproduction number of COVID-19: inference using human mobility, temperature, and risk awareness
    • Research Article
      Open Access

      A hospital-related outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 associated with variant Epsilon (B.1.429) in Taiwan: transmission potential and outbreak containment under intensified contact tracing, January–February 2021

      International Journal of Infectious Diseases
      Vol. 110p15–20Published online: June 16, 2021
      • Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov
      • Sung-mok Jung
      • Hao-Yuan Cheng
      • Robin N. Thompson
      Cited in Scopus: 8
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        As of 9 March 2021, there have been fewer than 1,000 confirmed cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in Taiwan, of which only 77 were locally acquired (Taiwan Centres for Disease Control, 2021). Following stringent border control measures, proactive contact tracing and case isolation, Taiwan's largest individual outbreak to date has been a hospital-related outbreak that involved 22 cases and occurred in January–February 2021. Despite successful containment of that outbreak, some aspects were concerning.
        A hospital-related outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 associated with variant Epsilon (B.1.429) in Taiwan: transmission potential and outbreak containment under intensified contact tracing, January–February 2021
      • Research Article
        Open Access

        Localized end-of-outbreak determination for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): examples from clusters in Japan

        International Journal of Infectious Diseases
        Vol. 105p286–292Published online: March 1, 2021
        • Natalie M. Linton
        • Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov
        • Hiroshi Nishiura
        Cited in Scopus: 4
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          The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been the most fatal and disruptive biological disaster in recent history. As of 24 February 2021, COVID-19 had been diagnosed in over 113 million people and associated with more than 2.5 million deaths. Travel restrictions, school closures, cancellation of public events, and other public health and social measures implemented to curb disease transmission have deeply affected lives and livelihoods worldwide. In the midst of the disaster, mathematical modeling has served prominently in informing pandemic response as outbreaks have erupted and grown (Anderson et al., 2020; Ferguson et al., 2020), but the field can also provide insight into the transmission dynamics of outbreaks as they come to an end (Thompson et al., 2019; Lee and Nishiura, 2019).
          Localized end-of-outbreak determination for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): examples from clusters in Japan
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